Diesel: Moscow announces exports have resumed

Reuters reports on October 15 that Moscow announced exports had resumed. The agency cites an approximately 40,000-tonne loading at Primorsk on October 13, bound for Morocco, according to LSEG. [13]

What the observation establishes

This loading confirms neither all announced deliveries nor a lasting fall in prices. [13]

In its October 14 report, the International Energy Agency expects diesel supply strains to persist into 2027. It considers replenishment of lost inventories unlikely before the second half of 2027, apart from typical seasonal fluctuations. This is a forecast, not a guaranteed timetable. [11]

CNBC also reports this forecast in an October 14 article. [12]

On October 12, Volodymyr Zelensky called on the United States and Europe to increase pressure on Moscow to secure a genuine energy ceasefire. Ukraine’s presidency reports his allegations of Russian attacks after the October 11 US announcement. [9]

Positions still differ

CNBC also reports these remarks and Kyiv’s warning that it would retaliate if Moscow failed to comply. According to that report, citing Reuters, the Kremlin said contacts were continuing. These positions do not establish that the ceasefire is being observed on the ground. [10]

An October 11 statement signed by seven Democratic and Republican senators calls on the Trump administration to abandon Russian diesel imports. The signatories argue that the decision conflicts with the 2022 import ban and criticize the lack of consultation with Congress. This is their position, not a court ruling. [7]

On October 12, Trump again defended the agreement, citing help for farmers and ranchers, AP reports. Congressional opposition does not mean the authorization has been withdrawn. [8]

Trump announced a Russia–Ukraine energy ceasefire on October 11, AP reports. Kyiv nevertheless reported attacks after that statement. [5]

A condition of reciprocity

In an interview broadcast by ABC on October 11, Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine was ready to stop attacking Russian refineries if Moscow stopped targeting Ukrainian energy facilities. His position is conditional. [6]

Donald Trump called on October 10 for Ukraine to replace Volodymyr Zelensky, Reuters reports. His remarks followed the Ukrainian president’s criticism of the diesel agreement announced the previous day. [4]

Donald Trump said on October 9 that he had agreed with Vladimir Putin on Russian diesel supplies for US and global markets. He announced more than 300,000 tonnes immediately, another 500,000 in November and one million thereafter. [1]

Announced volumes

He mentions three million additional tonnes, depending on refinery conditions. At that point, the announcement alone did not confirm deliveries. [1]

A defined authorization

OFAC’s General License 135, dated October 9, authorizes certain Russian diesel transactions until April 7, 2027, at 12:01 a.m. Eastern time. It contains exceptions concerning certain Russian public accounts; it is not a general lifting of sanctions. [2]

Political objections

Reuters reports criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Republican Representative Don Bacon. They oppose easing sanctions while Russia’s war in Ukraine continues. [3]

Analysts interviewed or cited by Reuters doubt that this agreement alone can keep prices lower over time. Announcing additional supply and achieving a lasting reduction in fuel costs remain separate outcomes. [3]